오늘날 미국인 대부분은 더 이상 정부 및 정부기관, 정치인, 학계, 미디어, 기업 경영진, 의료 서비스, 심지어 정치 과정 자체를 신뢰하지 않고 있다. 이러한 전반적인 신용위기의 원인은 무엇일까? 정치, 경제, 문화적 의미는 무엇이고, 이 신용을 회복하기 위해 무엇을 해야 할까?
미국 역사를 통틀어 표현과 언론, 종교의 자유는 제도화로 보장받았고, 이로 인해 대중은 미국의 지도력에 대한 자신감과 믿음을 가질 수 있었다.
그리고 이러한 ‘양도할 수 없는 권리’와 ‘법 아래 평등한 정의’에 대한 보장이 미국을 인류 역사상 가장 부유하고 성공적인 국가로 이끌었다 해도 과언이 아니다. 미국의 제도적, 문화적 규범이 창의적인 아이디어에 대한 개방적이고 자유로운 경쟁을 가능하게 했기 때문이다.
이러한 배경 하에서 미국인들은 자신들이 보고 듣는 것 대부분이 객관적 사실이라고 가정했다. 객관적 사실이 아닐 때, 누군가의 거짓말은 신속하게 드러나고 관계자는 처벌받을 것이라 믿었다.
하지만 이러한 미국인들의 신용에 균열이 발생한 것 같다. 그동안 믿었던 시스템이나 정책이 실제 표방된 것과 내용이 다르다는 점을 체험하면서 부터다. 그리고 이러한 체험과 신용 위기는 적어도 5가지 요소들로 인해 더욱 악화되었다.
첫 번째는 획일적 교육 시스템이다. 유치원에서 대학원에 이르기까지 점점 더 획일적으로 변해가고 있는 교육 시스템인 ‘교육-산업 복합체’는 비판적 사고와 객관적 진실 추구를 방해해왔다.
두 번째는 지식의 구획화다. 이는 데이터의 폭발적 증가로 인해 발생했다. 미디어 도구의 확산으로 거의 모든 사람들이 이전보다 더 많은 원천 정보(raw information)에 접근할 수 있지만 개인은 일반적으로 자신의 전문 분야에만 집중하고, 타 분야와의 연결은 외부에 맡기게 되었다. 이로 인해 대부분의 사람들이 여러 조작과 왜곡에 쉽게 노출되도록 의도적으로 방치되었다.
세 번째는 전문가 그룹에 대한 맹신, 혹은 권한 부여이다. 이것은 지식의 구획화 강화와 비판적 사고의 부족으로 인해 사람들이 거의 모든 영역에서의 결정권을 전문가들에게 양도하는 결과로 나타났다.
네 번째는 포스트모던식 사고방식이다. 이는 객관적 진리는 없다는 데 방점을 두며, 사회 경제적 우선순위에 대한 다양한 이견을 수용한다. 다만 현실적으로는 소위 엘리트들의 우선순위가 보다 강조되는데 반해 대중들은 그것이 자신들의 우선순위라고 믿도록 강요받고 있다. 정부 지출, 세계화, 기후 변화, 언론의 자유, 총기 규제 등의 소위 ‘사회 정의 문제’에 대한 사례를 보면 이러한 사실을 우리는 잘 알 수 있다.
다섯 번째는 트위터, 구글, 유튜브, 페이스북과 같은 소셜 미디어 플랫폼에 대한 광범위한 의존도이다. 이는 정보의 흐름에 대한 제어권을 이들 플랫폼에게 넘겨준다는 의미이다. 결과적으로 이러한 도구를 소유 및 통제하는 이들이 엄청난 힘과 영향력을 가지게 된다.
이 5가지 요소의 영향으로 미국 사회는 사실과 정보의 난독화에 맞닥뜨리게 되었고, 결과는 사회 전반적인 신용 위기이다. 일례로 로이터(Reuters)의 2021년 연구에 따르면 조사 대상 46개국 중 미국이 뉴스 미디어에 대한 신뢰도가 가장 낮은 국가로 나타났는데, 미디어를 대부분 신뢰하는 미국인은 29%에 불과했다. 이는 캐나다의 45%보다 낮은 수치이며, 심지어 37%로 응답한 멕시코보다도 낮다.
갤럽(Gallup)이 진행한 또 다른 연구에 따르면 미디어뿐만 아니라 미국의 다양한 기관들에 대한 신뢰도 또한 떨어진 것으로 나타났다. 1979년 약 50%였던 신뢰도가 2022년 27%로 떨어진 것이다.
국가 기관에 대한 세대별 경험 차이는 각 세대들이 기관에 대해 갖는 상대적 신뢰도에도 영향을 미쳤는데, 모닝 컨설트(Morning Consult)의 최근 연구에 따르면 대부분의 기관에 대해 Z세대(Zoomers)의 신뢰가 가장 낮고, 베이비붐 세대(Baby Boomers)의 신뢰는 그보다 훨씬 더 높았다.
결과적으로 신용의 위기는 국가에게 치명적이다. 냉전 말기 소련이나 베트남 전쟁 말기 미국이 처한 상황을 보면 더욱 그렇다. 대중들이 자신들이 속았다는 사실을 알게 될 때 거대한 위기가 발생하기 때문이다.
물론 신용과 신뢰의 위기는 미국뿐만 아니라 현재 전 세계 정부가 직면한 상황이기도 하다. 이러한 위기는 인구 및 기후 변화, 세계화와 반독점, 총기와 범죄, 인종 관계와 불평등, 외국의 정치적 영향력, 선거의 청렴성에 이르기까지 다양한 영역에서 만연하고 있다.
문제는 진실이란 필연적으로 드러나게 된다는 점이다. 이때 그 경제적, 정치적 영향은 상당한 파동을 일으키기 때문에 오늘날 우리들은 진실과 비밀이 밝혀짐으로써 펼쳐질 기회와 위협을 예의주시하고 있어야 한다.
미국의 신용과 신뢰의 위기, 그리고 전 세계적인 신용과 신뢰의 위기는 앞으로 어떻게 전개될 것인가? 우리는 다음과 같이 예측해볼 수 있을 것이다.
첫째, 진실과 거짓이 뒤섞여 있는 정치권에서 ‘진짜 문제’가 무엇인지 드러날 때, 그것은 선거에 지대한 영향을 미칠 것이다.
미국의 경우, 바이든 대통령에 대한 여러 주장들이 있다. 그는 실제로 무능력하고 치매 증상이 있으며, 중국과의 패권 다툼에서 실제로는 중국과 타협했다는 등의 주장이 실제로 존재한다. 우크라이나에 대해 미국이 어디까지 개입되어 있는지도 여전히 불명확하다.
법 아래 평등한 정의는 여전히 미국의 건국 이념이자 기반 원칙이기 때문에, 1970년대 워터게이트가 공화당을 무너뜨린 것처럼, 이러한 주장과 불명확한 진실이 어떤 사실로 뒷받침될 때 민주당에 큰 위기가 발생할 것이다.
이러한 문제는 비단 미국만의 문제는 아닐 것이다. 대중을 통제하려는 중국 공산당의 각종 조치 또한 진실이 밝혀지면 심각한 위기에 직면할 것이고, 러시아 또한 마찬가지이다. 서방 국가들을 포함한 OECD 국가들도 이러한 면에 있어서는 동일한 리스크가 있다.
둘째, 빅테크와 정부가 유착하여 표현과 언론의 자유를 침해한다는 사실이 분명해질 것이다.
지난 20여 년 동안 유튜브, 구글, 페이스북, 트위터 등의 플랫폼이 대량 생산 시대를 지배했던 인쇄 및 방송 매체를 거의 대체하고 있다. 이들은 여론을 조절할 수 있는 힘이 있으며, 실제로 정부와 유착하여 여론을 편향시키거나, 여론 형성을 막기도 한다. 플랫폼과 상관없이 정부 기관이 콘텐츠를 검열할 수도 있다. 이로 인해 소셜 미디어 플랫폼들과 정부의 유착은, 격렬한 사회적 논쟁과 저항을 일으킬 수 있다.
Resource List
1. Townhall.com. March 12, 2023. Derek Hunter. Democrats Are Terrified Of An Educated And Informed Public.
3. PJMedia.com. March 19, 2023. Ben Bartee. Half of Americans think most national news orgs intend to mislead or misinform the public, new report finds.
5. TheGatewayPundit.com. March 15, 2023. Jim Hoft. Rough Time for Fake News: Trust in Media in the Sewer – Majority of Americans Now Believe Media Intends to “Mislead, Misinform or Persuade the Public.”
10. TheGatewayPundit.com. March 17, 2023. Joe Hoft. Rep. Jamie Raskin Covered for the Bidens and Claimed Bank Records Showed Papa Johns and Starbucks Purchases – Ignored the $1 Million from the Chinese.
11. TheGatewayPundit.com. March 23, 2023. Richard Abelson. Germany’s AfD Party on Nord Stream Attack: “If Seymour Hersh is Correct, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Committed Treason and Must Resign.”
13. HelsinkiTimes. March 22, 2023. Seymour Hersh. The Biden Administration continues to conceal its responsibility for the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines.
18. DailyCaller.com. March 11, 2023. Laurel Duggan. “We Were Wrong” – Evidence Shows “Puberty Blockers are Neither Safe Nor Reversible” Says Canadian Doctor Who Helped Pioneered Puberty Blocker Drugs.
Throughout its history, America’s unique institutionalization of freedom of speech, freedom of the press and freedom of religion have enabled its populace to remain amazingly confident in its leadership.
The assurance of “inalienable rights” and “equal justice under the law” has played a major role in making the United States the richest and most successful country in human history. In the process, these institutional and cultural norms have made possible an open and free competition between ideas.
For that reason, we’ve assumed until recently, that what we see and hear reported will, for the most part, be objectively true; and when it is not true, the “lies” will quickly be revealed and the liars will be punished. Furthermore, all viewpoints will be judged fairly based on their “objective merits.” Unfortunately, those assumptions have desensitized us to the increasing systemic deception of recent years.
Meanwhile, at least five related trends have exacerbated this “systemic deception.”
1. An increasingly monolithic “educational-industrial complex” from pre-school through graduate school has discouraged critical thinking and the pursuit of objective truth.
Educational institutions primarily serve the interests of faculty and administrators rather than those of students, parents, taxpayers and employers. That means young people come to embrace the biases and values of educators rather than parents.
2. Compartmentalization of knowledge has been encouraged largely by the data explosion. Even though a proliferation of media tools gives almost everyone access to more raw information than ever before, individuals generally focus on their own narrow specialty and leave it to others to “connect the dots.”
Each person simply assumes that what they hear about topics from outside their own area of expertise has been verified based on empirical evidence.
3. Empowerment of the expert class. Because of the increasing compartmentalization of knowledge and the growing shortage of critical thinking skills, experts have been empowered to make decisions for society in almost every domain.
There is an overwhelming assumption that these experts are collectively more knowledgeable and objective than the rest of us and therefore their consensus must be trusted. While this may work in stable times, “expert consensus” has always proven wrong just when some new paradigm is set to replace the existing consensus.
Whether we’re talking about Aristotle’s four elements, the geocentric theory of the universe, the so-called “Population Bomb” of the 1970s, or today’s “catastrophic anthropogenic climate change,” the experts are always assumed to have the right answers, primarily because alternative ideas are suppressed.
4. Postmodern thinking has eliminated our insistence on objective truth; therefore, we simply accept whatever seems right to us. Today, the economic, political and personal priorities of the so-called elites are increasingly at odds with those of the general public and there is no set of shared criteria for resolving the conflict.
The clearest examples have to do with government spending priorities, globalization, climate change, freedom of speech, so-called “social justice issues,” and gun controls. And,
5. Widespread reliance on social media platforms such as Twitter, Google search, YouTube, and Facebook, empowers gatekeepers controlling the free flow of information.
This gives those who control those tools extraordinary power and influence. As the on-going release of the “Twitter Files” shows, much of what American’s have come to believe, has been manipulated to fit a pre-ordained narrative.
Over the past five-to-ten years, convergence of these five trends has enabled an unprecedented obfuscation of the truth, contributing to an extraordinary level of mistrust of government agencies, politicians, academics, news media, corporate management, health care providers, and even the political process itself.
A 2021 study from Reuters indicated that among 46 nations surveyed, the United States had the lowest level of trust in news media. Specifically, only 29% of Americans trusted the media most of the time. That’s lower than the 45% number for Canada or even the 37% number for Mexico.
Furthermore, 75% of those who identify as being on the “political right” thought coverage of their views was unfair.
More recently, a 2023 study from Gallup and the Knight Institute found that 50% of Americans disagreed with the statement that, “most national news organizations do not intend to mislead, misinform, or persuade the public.”
And it’s not just about news media or the 2020s. Another Gallup study, shown on page 4 of the printable issue, looked at American’s average confidence in a wide range of institutions and found that confidence fell from roughly 50% in 1979 to 27% in 2022.
That’s consistent with what you’d expect to see if the generational model proposed by Howe & Strauss in their book Generations, is valid. That is, trust should have peaked in the early 1950s and declined from there. If that model is correct, we should see a bottoming in the 2020s, followed by a rebound to another peak in the 2030s.
Generational experiences with institutions have contributed to the relative trust that different generations have in American institutions. Recent research by Morning Consult shows that trust in most institution is lowest among Gen Z (Zoomers), with Baby Boomers having much higher confidence.
To the Trends editors, it makes sense that Zoomers would have especially low levels of trust in institutions since they’ve grown up in an era of diminished credibility.
Two of the most disturbing phenomena currently undermining public trust are America’s “response to the Covid 19 pandemic” and the integration of socalled “woke activism” into corporate strategy. In trends #2 and #3 of the March 2023 Trends issue, we examine the most obvious deceptions and distortions behind these two phenomena.
As we explain, the metastasizing mindsets associated with these changes have led to unprecedented malfeasance and professional bias. And these further energize the battle for the “New American Consensus,” which we examine in trend #4.
But before we perform a detailed examination of those trends, let’s consider the broader context of deception, how it has undercut trust, and what the political, economic, and cultural implications might be.
Whether it’s in religion, science, economics or social justice, people are willing to undergo “hardship” and even “oppression” as long as they believe the rationale for that hardship. However, a crisis emerges when a large share of the populace realizes that they’ve been duped as was the case of the Soviets at the end of the Cold War or the Americans late in the Vietnam War.
Then suddenly, supporters of the old status quo turn on their deceivers and seek to “undermine them.” That’s the situation today’s governments face around the world. Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, are some of the most egregious examples of “lying and delaying.” However, the United States and the EU countries, exhibit many of the same symptoms, but in a more benign and manageable form.
Notably, duplicity is rampant in areas ranging from, population constraints and climate change, to globalization and antitrust, to guns and crime, to race relations and inequality, to foreign political influence and electoral integrity. And when the objective truth inevitably becomes known, each society will respond to this revelation through the lens of its own values.
History shows, the truth will inevitably come to the surface. In fact, we see the nature and extent of a wide range of specific deceptions emerging day-by-day. Unfortunately, the economic and political implications remain somewhat shrouded, as does the impact of still-hidden evidence. Consequently, each of us needs to stay alert to the unfolding opportunities and threats created as the hidden secrets are revealed.
Given this trend, we offer the following forecasts for your consideration.
First, evidence of President Biden’s mental incapacity will only increase, undermining his electability and influence.
This problem was a secondary factor in the 2020 campaign, but symptoms of dementia will become a central issue in the 2024 campaign if Democrats nominate Biden and keep the even less popular Harris as his running mate. Republicans will work hard to bring this suppressed evidence frontand-center, undermining the Democrat’s credibility.
Second, evidence of the President’s personal corruption will increase, further undermining his electability and influence.
Even before investigative hearings into influence-peddling by Hunter and James Biden, 60% of likely voters surveyed by Rasmussen Reports say Joe Biden is compromised in his dealings with China. Other evidence from his time as Vice President makes a similar case with respect to Ukraine.
Given the evidence already in the hands of House investigators, criminal referrals for members of the Biden family are all but certain and Presidential pardons will further undermine Joe Biden’s political future.
Third, a major controversy will develop regarding the facts surrounding U.S. involvement in the sabotage of the Nordstream 1 & 2 gas pipelines.
If Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour Hersch is even remotely correct, this will undermine the credibility of the United States and eliminate any political boost Biden might get from saving Ukraine. And it will further weaken Democrats going into 2024.
Fourth, investigations will determine whether career bureaucrats at the Department of Justice along with Biden Administration appointees have corrupted the justice system for political purposes.
When we compare the handling of the Paul Manafort case with that of Hunter Biden or the handling of the so-called “Russia-gate investigation” with the case of Hunter’s “laptop from hell,” there is strong prima facie evidence of such corruption.
Expect investigators to assess and confirm the magnitude of politization at the Department of Justice and the role of career bureaucrats in advancing partisan interests. The concept of “equal justice under the law” has been a “bedrock principle” since America’s founding.
Just as Watergate undermined Republicans in the 1970s, these revelations will undermine Democrats in the 2020s. So, this should give Republicans “the high moral ground” ahead of the 2024 elections and the momentum needed to overhaul the civil service beginning in 2025.
Fifth, as evidence is fully uncovered, Democrats will regret perpetuating the story of “January 6, 2021.”
The initial House investigation presented only one side of the story related to the events of January 6, 2021; this was based on highly edited and cherry-picked evidence. But even this mediocre effort, helped Democrats achieve some degree of political advantage in the 2022 mid-terms.
However, with the upcoming public release of over 40,000 hours of raw video and a new set of hearings, featuring a Capitol Police Force now reporting to Speaker McCarthy, a totally different storyline will emerge. Expect the credibility of the FBI, DOJ, and Democrat Congressional leadership to take a beating.
Nancy Pelosi, in particular, will need to explain under oath why Capitol Security was “mishandled,” making the events of January 6, virtually inevitable. Republicans will work to change the story line from one of Republican-encouraged “insurrection” to one of Democrat-facilitated “entrapment.” This will dovetail nicely with the investigation of the two-teared justice system, discussed earlier.
Sixth, revelations of government collusion with “Big Tech” in undermining “freedom of speech” will become a major issue going forward.
Over the past 20 years, YouTube, Google, Facebook & Twitter have come to supplant the print and broadcast media which dominated the Mass Production Era. As we are learning from the release of “the Twitter files,” government agencies have worked with biased content moderators to “censor” the content available to Americans.
Such revelations will only increase as Congress and investigative journalists dig deeper. Once SCOTUS eliminates their “Section 230” protections, big tech platforms will have few mechanisms to facilitate censorship. The result will be a dramatic shift in terms of ideological balance which will largely restore our free marketplace of ideas. Assuming this ruling comes in June, the following 18 months will be pivotal for the future of American culture.
Seventh, facts related to election integrity issues will be extensively examined as we approach the 2024 elections.
Despite problems in some places, at some times, the American electoral system has been the “envy of the world” for over 200 years.
However, revelations about “accommodations” implemented during the Covid 19 pandemic have led 40-to-60% of Americans to doubt the integrity of our electoral system. During upcoming hearings both Republicans and Democrats will have the first real opportunity to present their versions of the truth using witnesses and subpoenaed records.
With the possible exception of the 2022 Arizona Governor’s race, courts and legislative committees have refused to address the factual merits of election integrity; to-date decisions related to the 2020 & 2022 elections have exclusively assessed “standing” and “jurisdiction.”
At this point, the public evidence is ambiguous, but clarity will increase as we move toward 2024. Issues ranging from legislative district maps, to voter list accuracy, to mail-in signature verification, to voting machine reliability, to ballot harvesting, to handling of physical ballots need to be addressed so that voters once again become confident of election integrity.
The pending SCOTUS ruling on the role of state legislatures in election decision-making will play a major role in determining how these investigations are handled.
Eighth, media dissemination of misinformation regarding crime and guns will become increasingly obvious.
“Constitutional carry” will become the norm in many states as data increasingly establishes that “locales with the least gun regulation and the most law enforcement have the least crime.” The recent bipartisan defeat of changes to DC crime policies, is a harbinger of things to come. Soft on crime extremists in the spirit of Lori Lightfoot, Bill De Blasio and Chesa Boudin will approach political extinction. And,
Ninth, the truth behind the poorly managed exit from Afghanistan will come back to haunt the administration.
As voters come to understand the tactical and strategic implications of this withdrawal, it will seriously undermine the credibility of the current administration. It will not only increase doubts about the President’s mental capacity, but it will also play into charges of facilitating the interests of China.
Resource List
1. Townhall.com. March 12, 2023. Derek Hunter. Democrats Are Terrified Of An Educated And Informed Public.
3. PJMedia.com. March 19, 2023. Ben Bartee. Half of Americans think most national news orgs intend to mislead or misinform the public, new report finds.
5. TheGatewayPundit.com. March 15, 2023. Jim Hoft. Rough Time for Fake News: Trust in Media in the Sewer – Majority of Americans Now Believe Media Intends to “Mislead, Misinform or Persuade the Public.”
10. TheGatewayPundit.com. March 17, 2023. Joe Hoft. Rep. Jamie Raskin Covered for the Bidens and Claimed Bank Records Showed Papa Johns and Starbucks Purchases – Ignored the $1 Million from the Chinese.
11. TheGatewayPundit.com. March 23, 2023. Richard Abelson. Germany’s AfD Party on Nord Stream Attack: “If Seymour Hersh is Correct, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Committed Treason and Must Resign.”
13. HelsinkiTimes. March 22, 2023. Seymour Hersh. The Biden Administration continues to conceal its responsibility for the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines.
18. DailyCaller.com. March 11, 2023. Laurel Duggan. “We Were Wrong” – Evidence Shows “Puberty Blockers are Neither Safe Nor Reversible” Says Canadian Doctor Who Helped Pioneered Puberty Blocker Drugs.
